The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has recently released its flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024, showing a 2.5% increase in resale flat prices compared to the previous quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the HDB resale segment.
According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, the flash estimates also revealed a 9.6% increase in HDB resale prices for the whole year of 2024, which is double the growth seen in 2023. However, it is still lower than the 10.4% increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021.
OrangeTee notes a slowdown in price growth for some flat types based on HDB caveat data downloaded from data.gov.sg on Jan 2. For instance, four-room flats recorded a 2.5% q-o-q increase in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter. Similarly, two-room flats saw a 2% increase, while executive flats registered 1.2% growth. In contrast, prices for five-room flats grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, faster than the 1.2% increase in the third quarter.
Resale volume also saw a decline of 3.6% year-on-year to 6,314 units in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 6,547 transactions in the same period last year. This was also a 22.5% drop from the previous quarter, which saw 8,142 units transacted. Sun attributes the decrease in resale transactions to the launch of over 8,500 new flats in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, which diverted demand away from the resale market.
In addition, the seasonal year-end holidays and travel restrictions may have also contributed to the slow sales during this period.
Meanwhile, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, believes that the government intervention in August 2024, which reduced the loan-to-value limit for HDB loans to 75%, may have affected the resale market. As a result, the weaker sales and slower growth seen in the HDB resale price index in the fourth quarter may be due to these measures.
Despite the decline in resale volume, the total number of million-dollar flat transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, according to OrangeTee’s Sun. Toa Payoh town led the million-dollar resale flat deals in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 58 transactions. This was followed by Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, believes that the new classification of Plus and Prime BTO flats may have driven buyers to seek out resale homes in central locations. This is because these buyers are not willing to accept the resale restrictions, such as the 10-year MOP, rental restrictions, subsidy clawback, and resale income cap for future buyers.
Looking ahead, OrangeTee expects HDB resale prices to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower pace than previous years. Sun adds that the ongoing supply of BTO flats will help moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the extent of this stabilization will depend on the number of BTO flats released by the government in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 units across various towns. As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers may turn to the resale market, according to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia.
A major advantage of investing in condominiums is the opportunity to leverage the property’s value for future investments. Numerous investors utilize their condos as collateral to secure additional funding for new ventures, consequently diversifying their real estate holdings. This tactic has the potential to enhance profits, yet it also entails certain risks, making it essential to devise a solid financial plan and carefully assess potential market fluctuations. Additionally, with the constant influx of new condo launches, investors have even more opportunities to expand their real estate portfolios and capitalize on the potential for growth.
Interest rates are also expected to remain low in 2025, allowing buyers to take on a larger loan amount to purchase a new home. Huttons projects a stabilisation in the million-dollar flat market between 900 to 1,200 units in 2025. They also anticipate HDB resale flat transactions to fall between 26,000 to 28,000 units, with a 5% to 8% price growth. Overall, PropNex also expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, driven by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats reaching their five-year mark. They project HDB resale flat prices to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 7%, with a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units.…