HDB resale prices continued their upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a quarterly increase of 2.6%. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of growth in the resale market, according to data published by HDB on January 24. The overall price increase for the whole of 2024 was 9.7%, almost double the 4.9% increase seen in 2023.
The increase in resale prices in the last quarter was slightly lower than the 2.7% increase in the previous quarter. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, attributes the robust growth to the limited supply of flats that reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2024.
This limited supply has created upward pressure on prices, especially for newer flats and larger flat types such as five-room and executive units, which cater to growing family needs, he says.
Out of all flat types in the HDB resale market, five-room flats saw the highest price growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an average resale price of $754,097, up 2.2% from the previous quarter. The resale prices of four-room flats also saw an increase of 2.2% to $652,544.
The Central Area recorded the highest increase in prices, rising by 25.6% in the fourth quarter, according to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group. Toa Payoh, Tampines, Bishan, and Bedok followed with quarterly growth rates of 12.1%, 6.9%, 6.7%, and 6.1% respectively.
In the last three months of 2024, 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more, bringing the total number of million-dollar transactions for the year to 1,035. These transactions were mostly concentrated in mature estates, with the Kallang/Whampoa estate recording the highest number of million-dollar transactions at 156 units.
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The fall in transaction volume towards the end of 2024 can be attributed to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season, which resulted in a 21.1% q-o-q decrease in resale transactions. Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, also suggests that the lower interest rate environment may have prompted some buyers to look at the private residential market or Executive Condominium (EC) market.
Additionally, the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, which took place in October, may have enticed some buyers to opt for a new flat instead of a resale flat. This exercise saw a record 15 projects comprising 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework being launched. For the first time, singles were also allowed to buy two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations.
However, despite the dip in transaction volume at the end of 2024, the overall resale transactions for the year increased by 8.4% compared to 2023. Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun were the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024, accounting for around 35.9% of all HDB resale transactions.
In 2025, the number of newly MOP flats entering the secondary public housing market is expected to decrease by 41.6%. This is due to the relatively lower completion of BTO flats in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, HDB plans to launch over 25,000 new flats in three BTO sales exercises in 2025, with about 3,800 of them designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats offering wait times of less than three years.
With the growing demand for housing, Sandrasegeran forecasts a 3.5% to 5.5% increase in resale prices for 2025, with a resale transaction volume ranging from 26,000 to 27,000. Lee, on the other hand, predicts a more optimistic price increase of 5% to 8%.…